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Summaries of articles by Dr Phil Hammond about the Lucy Letby case
- Part 1: On Medical Experts And A Fair Trial
The article, authored by Dr. Phil Hammond (MD), explores
growing doubts about the safety of Lucy Letby's conviction. It highlights
alternative explanations for the deaths, flaws in the statistical evidence, and
the potential impact of substandard care on the unit.
- Part 2: On Why The Nurse Should Be Allowed To Appeal
The article advocates for Lucy Letby's right to appeal,
citing "serious concerns" raised by credible experts regarding the
fairness and completeness of the scientific and statistical evidence presented
at her trial. It critiques the lack of defence experts and highlights the
potential for bias.
- Part 3: On The Role Of Experts
The article analyzes the disparity in expert witnesses at the
Lucy Letby trial (six for the prosecution, none for the defence) and the
potential impact of this "one-sided interpretation" on the verdict.
It also highlights calls for reform in how expert evidence is handled in
criminal trials.
- Part 4: On The Tactics For Appeal
The article details the strategy of Letby's new barrister,
Mark McDonald, to challenge her convictions by presenting a new narrative
supported by independent experts. It critiques the prosecution's "gotcha
moments" and highlights alternative explanations for the deaths.
- Part 5: On The Thirlwall Inquiry
The article critiques the Thirlwall Inquiry for potentially
missing crucial evidence and context regarding the Lucy Letby case. It
discusses the exclusion of defence experts and nursing colleagues from the
inquiry and the failure of hospital governance.
- Part 6: On Thirlwall & The Countess Of Chester
The article focuses on the Thirlwall Inquiry and the
"killer question" of how multiple deaths by air embolism were missed
by numerous medical professionals but "spotted so quickly" by lead
prosecution expert Dr. Dewi Evans. It also examines the role of "Team
Evans" and the parents' experience of chaos on the unit.
- Part 7: On Issues With The Prosecution
The article outlines key issues with the prosecution's case
against Lucy Letby, including the retraction of a murder method by the lead
expert, suppressed statistical evidence, and the failure to consider
substandard care as a cause.
- Part 8: On the Book of Letby
The article discusses Lucy Letby's failed application to
appeal her conviction for the attempted murder of Baby K and analyzes the
reliability of the expert evidence presented in the book Unmasking Lucy
Letby by Judith Moritz and Jonathan Coffey.
- Parts 9 & 10: Dr. Ravi Jayaram, Intubation Difficulties, & Second Opinions
The article focuses on alternative medical explanations for
the collapses of babies (specifically Baby N and Baby K) and
critiques the actions and reasoning of the consultants who accused Letby,
particularly Dr. Ravi Jayaram.
- Part 11: The Coroner, Post-Mortem Findings, & New Expert Reports
The article highlights the "horror" of the former
coroner at discovering consultants withheld suspicions, the lack of forensic
evidence in post-mortems, and new expert reports that defense barrister Mark
McDonald claims will undermine the convictions.
- Part 12: Legal Challenges By The Defence
The article details the launch of a new appeal bid by Lucy
Letby's barrister, Mark McDonald, new expert reports and the
"withdrawal" of a key murder method by the prosecution's lead expert.
- Part 13: Controversial Scientific Evidence, Dr Shoo Lee
The article focuses on the controversial scientific evidence
used to convict Lucy Letby, specifically the "venous air embolism"
(VAE) theory and the misuse of a 1989 research paper by Dr. Shoo Lee.
- Parts 14 & 15: Expert Reviews
The article focuses on the failure to conduct a thorough
expert review before Letby's trial and the subsequent commissioning of
independent experts by her new defence team to challenge the convictions.
- Parts 16 & 17: International Expert Review, Dr Dewi Evans' Response, & Grounds For Appeal
A review by 14 international neonatology experts found "no evidence of deliberate harm".
Lead prosecution expert Dr. Dewi Evans dismissed these findings as "deeply flawed and
erroneous,".
Thirlwall Inquiry statements from nurses who worked with Letby and do not believe she murdered babies.
Grounds for Appeal: Dr Dewi Evans' U-turn, Factual Errors, Failure to Disclose, Insulin evidence debunked.
- Part 18: Thirlwall, The Insulin Evidence, & Future Recommendations
The article focuses on the ongoing Thirlwall Inquiry, the
potential for recommendations to improve NHS safety, and the "hinge"
of the insulin evidence that could be key to an appeal. It also discusses the
broader implications for doctors and safety investigations.
- Part 19: All Fall Down? Dr Jayaram's Inconsistencies, & Other Contrary Evidence
The article casts doubt on the safety of Lucy Letby's
convictions, highlighting inconsistencies in key witness testimony (Dr. Ravi
Jayaram), suppressed statistical advice, police tunnel vision, and potential
laboratory errors regarding insulin evidence.
- Part 20: Appeal Court Confusion (Baby K), & Statistical Critique
The article questions the safety of Lucy Letby's conviction,
particularly focusing on the "confusion" regarding Dr. Ravi Jayaram's
testimony and the lack of statistical rigor in the trial. It features a
critique of three key prosecution claims endorsed by eight independent
professors of statistics.
- Parts 21 & 22: Media Conflicts, Political Intervention, & Dr Jayaram and Dr Evans Referred To GMC
- Part 23: Appeals All Round, Dr Evans Self-Destructs, & Flaws In Evidence
The article focuses on growing calls for Lucy Letby's
conviction to be re-examined, driven by high-profile interventions and the
perceived "self-destruction" of the lead prosecution expert, Dr. Dewi
Evans, who has been changing his mind on key theories of murder.
- Part 24: On The Death Of Baby O
The article focuses on the conviction for the murder of Baby
O, specifically challenging the prosecution's theory of "inflicted
liver trauma." It presents new analysis from defence experts suggesting
the death was actually caused by medical errors, including excessive
ventilation and an accidental liver puncture by a doctor.
- Part 25: Failure To Inform The Coroner
The article focuses on the failure of consultants to report
suspicions of foul play to the coroner at the time of the deaths, and the
subsequent "writing out" of a coroner's officer who found no evidence
of deliberate harm.
- Parts 26 & 27: The Shifting Media Narrative, & Recent Documentaries
The article, titled "Channel Hopping" (and
"Smashie and Nicey" in sub-sections), analyzes the shifting media
narrative around the Lucy Letby case, focusing on recent documentaries that
have begun to question the safety of the convictions.
- Part 28: Why Were No Expert Witnesses For The Defence Called?
The article, titled "Silent Witnesses,"
addresses the central mystery of why the defence in the Lucy Letby trial chose
not to call any expert witnesses. It concludes that this decision stemmed from
a pre-trial meeting where defence experts were "outnumbered" and made
critical concessions that would have been damaging if presented in court.
- Part 29: The C4 Documentary, The Role Of The Consultants, Systemic Failures, & Expert Witness Imbalance
The article criticizes the media coverage and the origins of
the police investigation, while highlighting systemic failures (staffing,
intubation) and the imbalance in expert witness resources between prosecution
and defence.
- Part 30: Dr Dewi Evans And Baby C
- Part 31: Dr Dewi Evans Undermines The Other Prosecution Expert Witnesses
This part focuses on the
"other experts" in the Lucy Letby trial and how the lead expert, Dr.
Dewi Evans, has purportedly undermined their credibility and the prosecution's
case.
- Part 32: Trial Flaws And Expert Doubts, The Police Investigation, Medical Expert Witnesses
The article, titled "The Lessons of the Lucy Letby
Case: Part 32", argues that the prosecution's case in the Lucy Letby
trial was "seriously wrong" and driven by "confirmation
bias." It highlights significant disagreements among prosecution experts,
new doubts about the causes of death, and criticism from senior police figures
regarding the investigation's integrity.
Part 1: On Medical Experts And A Fair Trial [link]
Overview
The article, authored by Dr. Phil Hammond (MD), explores
growing doubts about the safety of Lucy Letby's conviction. It highlights
alternative explanations for the deaths, flaws in the statistical evidence, and
the potential impact of substandard care on the unit.
Key Findings
1. Grounds for Doubt
- Initially
accepting the verdict, MD was later contacted by numerous experts who
believe the science and statistics at the trial were "incomplete and
flawed" and that the case was not proven beyond reasonable doubt.
- Reporting
restrictions prevented publication of these views until July 2024, after
Letby's retrial .
2. Alternative Hypotheses for Deaths
- National
Trend: In 2015, infant mortality rose in England and Wales for the
first time in a century. A survey found two-thirds of neonatal units
lacked sufficient staff .
- Random
Chance: Clusters of deaths can happen by chance. A senior consultant
at the hospital, Dr. John Gibbs, wrote in July 2016 that the increase
might be within "expected statistical variance" .
- Sick
Babies: The unit treated more babies with lower birth weights and
complex needs in 2015. Defence expert Mike Hall (unused at trial)
argues prosecution experts misrepresented the "wellness" of the
babies, leading the jury to believe they were stable when they were not .
- Inadequate
Care: The unit was outdated (built in 1974), cramped, and suffered
from sewage backups.
- A
Royal College of Paediatrics (RCPCH) review found "insufficient
senior cover" and reluctance among junior staff to seek advice.
- Staff
were "chronically overworked" and often in tears.
- Downgraded
Unit: When Letby was removed, the unit was also downgraded to Level 1
(stopping care for intensive care babies). This change in patient acuity
alone could explain the reduction in deaths .
3. Specific Medical Challenges
- Air
Embolism: Research suggests air embolism is a "not infrequent
occurrence" after CPR, which these babies underwent. Prosecution
claims of specific skin rashes being diagnostic of air embolism are
disputed by experts like Dr. Shoo Lee, whose research was used by the
prosecution but who argues it was misinterpreted .
- Insulin:
The conviction for insulin poisoning relied on "high insulin, low
C-peptide" results. Experts argue the immunoassay test used is
unreliable for criminal proof and requires corroboration (which was never
done). One sample was taken 10 hours after Letby left, leading to an
"unproven" hypothesis of bag spiking .
4. Statistical Flaws
- The
"killer roster" showed Letby present at 25 events, but it
omitted other deaths/collapses when she wasn't on duty.
- In
total, there were at least 35 deaths or collapses during the
period, meaning Letby was not present for 10 of them.
- Statisticians
argue the roster only proves "Letby was on duty when she was on
duty" and lacks robustness without a full statistical analysis of all
shifts and staff .
Conclusion
The article concludes that the justice system's reliance on
adversarial experts (where the defence called none) left the jury with a
"highly selective" view of the science. It calls for mandatory
independent expert panels and statistical input in complex medical trials .
Part 2: On Why The Nurse Should Be Allowed To Appeal [link]
Overview
The article advocates for Lucy Letby's right to appeal,
citing "serious concerns" raised by credible experts regarding the
fairness and completeness of the scientific and statistical evidence presented
at her trial. It critiques the lack of defence experts and highlights the
potential for bias.
Key Findings
1. Expert Imbalance & Bias
- The
report notes a critical mismatch: the prosecution used six expert
witnesses, while the defence used none. This created a
"high risk of bias and false conclusions" .
- Defence
experts could have argued that:
- Natural
causes of death were more plausible.
- The
prosecution's use of statistics was "lamentable."
- Alleged
methods like insulin overdoses, air emboli, and "death by squirting
air into the stomach" were unproven or highly improbable.
2. Pathological Doubts
- Six
of the seven murdered babies underwent full coroner's post-mortem
examinations by experienced paediatric pathologists at Alder Hey. None
picked up a trace of foul play .
- A
top forensic pathologist explains that without initial suspicion,
definitive tests (like for insulin) are often not done, and no photos are
taken, leaving later reviews reliant on notes and memory.
- The
pathologist notes that paediatric cases have "many
uncertainties" and warns against "hawkish and dogmatic"
clinicians swaying juries with confidence over evidence .
3. "Hot-Tubbing" Proposal
- The
report suggests a fairer method for complex trials is
"hot-tubbing," where experts from both sides take the stand
together to discuss and debate the evidence, helping the jury understand
points of agreement and disagreement .
4. Alternative Explanations
- The
author (MD) draws parallels to the Bristol heart scandal, where
excess deaths were initially unexplained but found to be due to systemic
failures and lack of expertise, not murder.
- Factors
like random fluctuation, sick patients, infectious outbreaks, insufficient
staff, and substandard care are far more common causes of excess deaths
than deliberate harm .
- A
draft report from the Royal College of Paediatrics (RCPCH) noted that
nursing colleagues thought highly of Letby and saw no issues with her
competency. The allegation against her was a "gut
feeling" and her presence on shift, with "no other
evidence" .
5. Senior Expert Opinion
- A
"very senior practising neonatologist" reviewed the
prosecution's opening statement and found it "troubles me
deeply."
- They
stated the cases had "much more plausible alternative
explanations" and described many prosecution comments as "medically
illiterate."
- The
expert concluded: "On the basis of what I've seen, this conviction is
wholly unsafe" .
Conclusion
The article concludes that the conviction relies on one-sided
science and questionable statistics (the "spreadsheet"). It questions
why Letby has not been implicated in other deaths during the same period and
calls for proper statistical expertise in such trials .
Part 3: On The Role Of Experts [link]
Overview
The article analyzes the disparity in expert witnesses at the
Lucy Letby trial (six for the prosecution, none for the defence) and the
potential impact of this "one-sided interpretation" on the verdict.
It also highlights calls for reform in how expert evidence is handled in
criminal trials.
Key Findings
1. The Expert Imbalance
- The
prosecution fielded six expert witnesses, while the defence called none.
- Prof.
Mike Hall, a retired neonatologist and unused defence expert, argues this
led to an unfair trial because his view (that the babies were sicker than
portrayed and likely died of natural causes) was never heard by the jury .
- Hall
also questioned the suitability of the prosecution's two main neonatal
experts, noting they had retired from clinical practice 13 and 15 years
before the trial began.
2. Systemic Flaws in Expert Evidence
- The
report cites a 2011 Law Commission report identifying that "too much
expert opinion evidence is admitted without adequate scrutiny"
because there is no clear reliability test.
- Juries
may reach conclusions unreliable evidence because advocates do
not always effectively cross-examine experts on their methodology.
- The
Ministry of Justice rejected most recommendations to fix this in 2013 .
3. Defence Tactics
- Letby's
barrister, Ben Myers KC, attempted to have the case thrown out at
"half-time" (a "no case to answer" submission),
arguing the evidence was sparse and the modes of murder (like air
embolism) were so unusual that no one could reliably be an expert on them.
- The
report suggests Myers may have been reluctant to call his own retired
expert (Hall) after arguing that no retired expert could be
reliable.
- However,
the article critiques this strategy, noting that without defence experts,
there is "no expert evidence on... more plausible causes of
death" to counter the prosecution .
4. Alternative Expert Opinion
- A
senior practising neonatal expert reviewed the "half-time"
ruling and argued the defence's argument was incomplete.
- They
stated the defence should have:
- Explained
that diagnosing air embolism ante-mortem (before death) is
extremely difficult.
- Highlighted
that causes of air embolism include vigorous resuscitation, high-pressure
ventilation, and poor line management—all of which were present.
- Pointed
to the backdrop of an inexperienced, understaffed, and chaotic unit as a
"plausible alternative explanation" that makes deliberate
injection the least likely cause .
5. Call for Screening
- The
author (MD) argues that if the statistical and clinical evidence had been
"screened beforehand by a team of the best available experts"
(as per Law Commission recommendations), the Crown Prosecution Service
might have concluded it was impossible to prove the case beyond reasonable
doubt .
Part 4: On The Tactics For Appeal [link]
Overview
The article details the strategy of Letby's new barrister,
Mark McDonald, to challenge her convictions by presenting a new narrative
supported by independent experts. It critiques the prosecution's "gotcha
moments" and highlights alternative explanations for the deaths.
Key Findings
1. Legal Change and Strategy
- Lucy
Letby has instructed Mark McDonald to draft her application to the
Criminal Cases Review Commission (CCRC).
- McDonald's
primary task is to conduct a review of the scientific and clinical
evidence using named experts and publish it.
- The
goal is to draw "very different scientific conclusions" from
lead prosecution expert Dr. Dewi Evans to pressure the CCRC to refer the
case back to the appeal court .
2. A New Narrative: Bad Luck vs. Substandard Care
- McDonald
needs to offer an alternative to deliberate harm. The article suggests two
potential narratives:
- Statistical
Fluctuation (Bad Luck): Statisticians argue the death clusters happen
by random fluctuation.
- Substandard
Care (Most Likely): The alternative narrative is that the unit was
"simply not up to the task" of coping with an influx of
critically ill babies. This is supported by a damning RCPCH review (never
seen by the jury) which suggests the unit failed to spot deteriorations
or manage resuscitations, especially at night .
3. "Gotcha Moments" Rebutted
- Dr.
Dewi Evans: The article criticizes Evans for his "absolute
certainty" and for being the sole expert who initially identified the
cases for police. It highlights his circular role: employed by police to
find murder, then by the court to verify his own findings. Evans claims he
excluded other causes because "there were no other causes," a
statement the article challenges .
- Insulin
Poisoning: The article argues the jury should have heard from experts
like Professor Alan Wayne Jones, who states the immunoassay test used is
prone to false positives and insufficient for criminal proof. It also
notes the failure to send samples to a specialist lab for confirmation,
contrary to protocol .
- The
"Spreadsheet": The famous chart showing Letby present at all
collapses is dismissed as merely proving "Letby was on duty when
Letby was on duty," ignoring other deaths and the context of an
understaffed unit .
- The
"Confession": The "I am evil" note was revealed
post-trial to be part of a therapeutic process advised by a counsellor, a
context never given to the jury .
4. The "Third Insulin Baby"
- Dr.
Evans revealed a third case of potential insulin poisoning (high
insulin, low C-peptide) in November 2015.
- This
baby survived and was diagnosed with hyperinsulinism (a natural
condition) by Alder Hey specialists.
- The
report argues this is a critical inconsistency: either the specialists
were wrong (and Letby poisoned a third baby), or the test results used to
convict Letby can occur naturally. If the latter, "the wheels come
off the prosecution case entirely" .
5. Nurse Support
- The
report notes that none of Letby's fellow nurses gave evidence against her,
and some who wanted to support her were reportedly "discouraged and
threatened."
- Written
evidence from colleagues supporting Letby has been submitted to the
Thirlwall Inquiry, but they have been told they won't be called to give
oral evidence, fueling suspicions of a cover-up .
Part 5: On The Thirlwall Inquiry [link]
Overview
The article critiques the Thirlwall Inquiry for potentially
missing crucial evidence and context regarding the Lucy Letby case. It
discusses the exclusion of defence experts and nursing colleagues from the
inquiry and the failure of hospital governance.
Key Findings
1. Unheard Evidence at Trial
- The
report argues the original jury heard only "half the evidence."
- Missing
Voices: The jury did not hear from:
- Nurse
colleagues who believe Letby is innocent.
- Letby's
counsellor (regarding the Post-it notes).
- The
Royal College of Paediatrics (RCPCH) representative (on serious unit
failings).
- Pathologists
(who found no foul play).
- Dr.
Jane Hawdon (consultant neonatologist) who reviewed 17 cases and found
"serious failings but no evidence of foul play" .
- Missing
Experts: There was no microbiologist to discuss infection outbreaks,
no embolism expert to challenge the rashes, and no statistical expert to
explain random variations in death rates .
2. "Blame Ping Pong" & Governance Failures
- Hospital
managers argue they were not informed of key incidents or suspicions by
doctors.
- Failure
to Report: Doctors who suspected Letby (some allegedly calling her
"Nurse Death") failed in their statutory duty to contact
the coroner after every unexpected death.
- Had
they done so, a full forensic post-mortem (including definitive insulin
testing) could have been conducted, potentially diagnosing or excluding
murder much earlier .
- An
early barrister review (Simon Medland QC) and police assessment (Assistant
Chief Constable Darren Martland) both found "no evidence of a
crime" or reasonable grounds for suspicion at the time .
3. Nurses' Questionnaire & Exclusion
- The
inquiry sent questionnaires to nurses. One colleague's responses, seen by
MD, described Letby as an "exemplary nurse" who was
"completely innocent."
- The
colleague believed consultants were trying to make Letby a
"scapegoat" for increased deaths/collapses, which they viewed as
not sinister given the high risk of the babies involved.
- Despite
this, the inquiry informed the nurse she was not on the list to
give oral evidence. The article argues it is vital to hear from those who
worked closely with Letby, even if they contradict the "preferred
narrative" .
4. The "Evans Factor"
- The
report reiterates that the murder charges relied heavily on Dr. Dewi
Evans' ability to diagnose murder where other experts failed.
- It
notes sarcastically that a key inquiry recommendation should be to call
Dr. Evans immediately for any future concerns, as he claims he would have
stopped Letby after the first death.
- However,
Dr. Evans has not been contacted to give testimony to the inquiry,
which the article finds inexplicable .
Conclusion
The article suggests the inquiry may be too focused on
"stopping medical murder" the assumption of guilt, while
potentially ignoring the broader context of a failing unit and the voices of
those who doubt the convictions.
Part 6: On Thirlwall & The Countess Of Chester [link]
Overview
The article focuses on the Thirlwall Inquiry and the
"killer question" of how multiple deaths by air embolism were missed
by numerous medical professionals but "spotted so quickly" by lead
prosecution expert Dr. Dewi Evans. It also examines the role of "Team
Evans" and the parents' experience of chaos on the unit.
Key Findings
1. The "Killer Question" (Missed Diagnoses)
- The
report questions how seven consultants (with >100 years' experience),
three paediatric pathologists, coroners, mortality reviews, and external
inspectors (CQC, RCPCH) all failed to diagnose repeated deaths by air
embolism.
- In
contrast, Dr. Dewi Evans, who had not practised since 2009, claimed to
spot them quickly and described the diagnosis as "easy" because
babies are "simple" .
- Evans
claims he would have spotted the first murder and saved lives had he been
called sooner, yet he has not been asked to give a statement to the
inquiry .
2. "Team Evans" and the Confirming Experts
- The
police assembled a team of experts (including Dr. Sandie Bohin and Dr.
Andreas Marnerides) to support Evans.
- This
team allowed Evans to expand the murder method to include air via the
nasogastric tube (for Babies C, I, and P).
- The
"U-Turn": Evans initially claimed Baby C was killed by air
in the stomach (a view supported by the prosecution in court). However,
post-trial, he decided Baby C was actually killed by air in a vein, and
that air in the stomach was merely for "destabilisation" .
- Baby
O (Liver Trauma): Evans diagnosed "inflicted harm" (a blow
to the liver) within 10 minutes of seeing the notes. The article notes that
another expert (in a Tortoise podcast) suggested this was more
likely a subcapsular haematoma, a known complication of premature
multiple births .
3. "Managerial Quandary" & Unit Failings
- The
inquiry is set to criticize managers for not calling police sooner. However,
the article argues that if no doctor on the unit could diagnose the
"obvious" murders, managers had no reason to call the police .
- The
real failure, the article suggests, was not downgrading the unit to Level 1
(low risk) in 2015 when staffing and expertise were clearly insufficient
for high-risk (Level 3) babies like the triplets .
4. Parents' Experience of Chaos
- Parents
of the triplets described the unit as "complete chaos" and
"absolute pandemonium."
- One
father saw a nurse "Googling a procedure, a lung drain"
and staff looking like they were following a tutorial rather than knowing
what they were doing .
- Parents
also reported a lack of candour, broken equipment (blood gas machine), and
sewage leaks .
5. Evans Retires
- Dr.
Evans told MD he has retired from Letby work and passed 25 more suspicious
cases to police (who haven't responded).
- The
report concludes by contrasting the "Team Evans" view
(widespread murder by one nurse) with other experts who find "serious
deficiencies" in care without evidence of murder .
Part 7: On Issues With The Prosecution [link]
Overview
The article outlines key issues with the prosecution's case
against Lucy Letby, including the retraction of a murder method by the lead
expert, suppressed statistical evidence, and the failure to consider
substandard care as a cause.
Key Findings
1. The "Air in Stomach" Retraction
- Dr.
Dewi Evans, the lead prosecution expert, signed a statement in August
2024 declaring that "none of the babies were killed as a direct
result of the injection of air... into their stomachs."
- This
is significant because the theory of "death by splinting"
(stomach distension crushing lungs) was used to explain the deaths of Babies
C, I, and P and was mentioned 159 times in the trial. Evans'
retraction leaves a "great hole" in the prosecution case .
2. Suppressed Statistical Analysis
- Cheshire
Police hired Professor Jane Hutton, a statistician from the
University of Warwick, to analyze the deaths.
- However,
the Crown Prosecution Service (CPS) instructed the police to stop this
inquiry because the prosecutor did not agree with her line of inquiry
(which required analyzing all deaths, not just suspicious ones).
- The
report suggests this was a "sound move" for the prosecution
because Prof. Hutton has since become a vocal critic of the trial's
statistics .
3. The "Backstairs" Evidence
- The
trial relied heavily on swipe card data to place Letby at the scene.
- However,
it has emerged that there was another unmonitored point of entry via backstairs
that used a keypad but left no data trace. Staff used this frequently,
making the "on duty killer spreadsheet" potentially
"worthless" .
4. The "Substandard Care" Argument & The
Hawdon Report
- A
report by the Royal College of Paediatrics found "significant
gaps" in staffing and insufficient consultant presence at the unit.
- An
advisory report by senior neonatologist Dr. Jane Hawdon in October
2016 identified "major or significant suboptimal clinical care"
in 14 of 17 cases reviewed.
- Hawdon's
report was excluded from evidence because Letby was only charged
with 9 of the 17 cases. The article argues this exclusion was wrong
because it showed babies deteriorated unexpectedly even when Letby wasn't
involved, pointing to systemic failures rather than murder .
5. Missing Forensic Proof
- The
report highlights that definitive forensic tests for insulin poisoning and
air embolism were never done.
- Doctors
failed to request post-mortem CT scans or send blood to a specialist lab,
meaning the chance to definitively prove (or disprove) murder was lost. The
case relied instead on clinical records and disputed interpretations .
6. CCRC Application
- Letby's
last chance is an application to the Criminal Cases Review Commission
(CCRC).
- The
CCRC must consider procedural errors (like the failure to disclose the
Hutton emails or allow the Hawdon report) and whether Evans' retraction
invalidates the convictions .
Part 8: On the Book of Letby [link]
Overview
The article discusses Lucy Letby's failed application to
appeal her conviction for the attempted murder of Baby K and analyzes the
reliability of the expert evidence presented in the book Unmasking Lucy
Letby by Judith Moritz and Jonathan Coffey.
Key Findings
1. "More Hot Air?" (Stomach Air Theory)
- The
report highlights a significant flaw in the prosecution's theory that
Letby murdered babies by injecting air into their stomachs.
- It
notes that Letby was not on duty when Baby I and Baby C
were found to have unusual amounts of air in their stomachs, a fact the
jury seemingly overlooked.
- The
authors of the book conclude that prosecution experts (Dr. Dewi Evans and
Dr. Sandie Bohin) either "misinterpreted two 'stomach air' events
as 'suspicious' when in fact they were innocent," or that someone
other than Letby was responsible.
2. "All Change" (Dr. Dewi Evans' Reliability)
- The
report criticizes lead expert Dr. Dewi Evans for frequently
changing his mind. It reveals that Appeal Court judge Lord Justice
Jackson wrote to the trial judge (Judge Goss) in December 2022 to warn
him of Evans' unreliability in a previous case.
- Baby
C Case: Evans produced eight pre-trial reports but only settled on the
"stomach air" theory in the witness box. Under
cross-examination, he changed his theory again, suggesting Letby might
have killed Baby C twice (once by stomach air, once by air embolism). The
report accuses him of "theorising on the hoof".
3. Retrospective Interpretation
- The
report argues that the case against Letby relied almost entirely on the "retrospective
analysis" and "interpretative judgements" of
medical records by experts Evans and Bohin, rather than hard forensic
evidence.
- It
poses the question: "If Evans had been working for the defence, would
Letby be a free woman?".
4. Failed Appeal
- The
report notes that Letby's appeal regarding the fairness of her retrial
(due to adverse media coverage) was rejected. The judges dismissed
challenges to the original verdicts but passed the broader debate about
the safety of the convictions to the Criminal Cases Review Commission
(CCRC).
Parts 9 & 10: Dr. Ravi Jayaram, Intubation Difficulties, & Second Opinions [link]
Overview
The article focuses on alternative medical explanations for
the collapses of babies (specifically Baby N and Baby K) and
critiques the actions and reasoning of the consultants who accused Letby,
particularly Dr. Ravi Jayaram.
Key Findings
1. "Frail Babies" and Intubation Issues
- Dr.
Tariq Ali, a paediatric intensive care consultant, reviewed the notes
and argues that the collapses were likely caused by "intubation
difficulties" rather than deliberate harm.
- Baby
N: Dr. Ali states that the blood found in the airway "obviously
came from the first attempt at intubation" by a doctor who tried
three times in a stressful situation. He notes the baby had haemophilia
(making bleeding likely even from minor injury) and questions the
expertise of trial witnesses in intubating neonates.
- Baby
K: Dr. Ali is "incredulous" that Letby was convicted of
deliberately dislodging the tube, arguing that accidental dislodgement is
common in such small children and better explained by poor securing or
positioning.
2. Critique of Dr. Ravi Jayaram
- Dr.
Jayaram, one of Letby's main accusers, apologized to the Thirlwall Inquiry
for not stopping Letby sooner. However, the article notes he had "no
objective evidence" at the time.
- MD's
Challenge: The author (MD) emailed Jayaram to ask if there were more
plausible alternatives to murder. Jayaram replied that even if the unit
had the "worst staff" and "worst care," it could not
explain the sudden deteriorations.
- The
"Obvious Flaw": MD argues the flaw in Jayaram's reasoning is
that a unit short of experienced staff is exactly where you would
expect a lack of "appropriate timely interventions," leading to
sudden deteriorations.
- The
report suggests that independent experts reviewing the notes might find
that the deaths were "entirely explained by medical interventions
that were neither timely nor appropriate," shifting the blame from
Letby to the unit's failings.
3. The Role of Dr. Dewi Evans
- The
report claims the case against Letby only "took off" when expert
witness Dr. Dewi Evans arrived and "confidently
concluded" from the notes that murder had occurred.
- It
highlights that Evans changed his mind multiple times during the trial and
abandoned one method of murder post-trial, yet his "belief that he is
right has never waned".
Part 11: The Coroner, Post-Mortem Findings, & New Expert Reports [link]
Overview
The article highlights the "horror" of the former
coroner at discovering consultants withheld suspicions, the lack of forensic
evidence in post-mortems, and new expert reports that defense barrister Mark
McDonald claims will undermine the convictions.
Key Findings
1. Coroner's Horror at Withheld Suspicions
- Nicholas
Rheinberg, the former senior coroner for Cheshire, told the Thirlwall
Inquiry he was "horribly disappointed" and expressed
"absolute horror" that no consultant or manager passed on
suspicions of foul play.
- Consultant
Dr. Ravi Jayaram gave evidence twice at the inquest for Baby A
(October 2016) while secretly convinced Letby was a murderer, yet said
nothing to the coroner.
- Rheinberg
stated that if this information had been shared, he would have adjourned
the inquest and sought police involvement immediately .
2. No Foul Play Detected in Post-Mortems
- Six
of the seven murdered babies underwent "absolutely meticulous"
paediatric post-mortem examinations, yet no foul play or signs of
air embolism were detected.
- The
report contrasts this with prosecution expert Dr. Dewi Evans, who
claimed to spot the murders "very quickly, just by looking at the
notes" years later. The article questions how Evans could spot what
pathologists, the coroner, police, and multiple review panels missed .
3. New Defence Evidence
- Barrister
Mark McDonald announced he is releasing evidence that
"significantly undermines" Letby's convictions.
- This
includes two detailed documents (over 30,000 words each) by practising
Level 3 neonatologists explaining the deaths of Baby O and Baby
C. They conclude the deaths had "nothing to do with
Letby" and were due to clinical care issues.
- The
report mentions that McDonald may also present statistical analysis that
Cheshire Police commissioned but cancelled on the advice of the CPS .
4. Retracted Murder Method
- The
report notes that Dr. Evans has retracted a key method of murder
(air in the stomach) post-trial.
- It
questions whether this retraction, combined with the new expert reports,
will be enough to speed up a referral to the Court of Appeal .
5. Fresh Charges & Costs
- Police
are briefing the media about possible fresh charges. The article warns that
if these are "hypothetical coincidences" without
forensic proof, it could be a waste of public money and lead to further
reporting restrictions.
- It
highlights the financial disparity: prosecution experts can earn
"half a million pounds," while defence experts are working pro
bono .
Part 12: Legal Challenges By The Defence [link]
Overview
The article details the launch of a new appeal bid by Lucy
Letby's barrister, Mark McDonald, new expert reports and the
"withdrawal" of a key murder method by the prosecution's lead expert.
Key Findings
1. Prosecution Expert Withdrawal (Legal Challenge 1)
- Dr.
Dewi Evans, the chief prosecution expert, signed a statement to
Channel 5 in August 2024 stating that "none of the babies... were
killed as a direct result of the injection of air... into their
stomachs."
- This
contradicts the prosecution's case presented to the jury, where barrister
Nicholas Johnson KC claimed it was "plain as the nose on your
face" that Letby killed Baby C this way.
- The
report argues that since Letby was convicted of murdering Babies C, I,
and P using this method (which Evans now disavows as fatal), the Court
of Appeal must review whether these verdicts are sound .
2. New Defence Expert Reports (Legal Challenge 2)
- Mark
McDonald submitted reports to the Criminal Cases Review Commission (CCRC)
from practising neonatal experts Dr. Neil Aiton and Dr. Svilena
Dimitrova. These reports conclude that the deaths were "entirely
explicable" and not due to intended harm.
- Baby
O Case: The article highlights the death of Baby O, arguing the baby
was ventilated at "inappropriately high pressure settings" that
pushed the liver down.
- It
alleges that Dr. Stephen Brearey (identified from transcripts)
inserted a needle into the abdomen on the wrong side (right
instead of left) to relieve distension.
- The
experts claim the needle lacerated the liver, causing bleeding and
shock (confirmed by a halved haemoglobin level).
- Dr.
Richard Taylor, endorsing the findings, stated: "If this had
happened to me, I'd be unable to sleep at night... And now there is a
nurse in jail convicted of murder" .
3. Thirlwall Inquiry Update
- The
inquiry released a 2017 email from the hospital's medical director, Ian
Harvey, stating that pathologists assured him a "significant air
embolus would be detected at PM [post-mortem]."
- The
report questions why, out of six babies who had meticulous post-mortems, not
a single significant air embolism was found, despite Dr. Evans' theory
that Letby murdered all seven babies this way .
- Jeremy
Hunt: The former Health Secretary is set to give evidence, facing
questions on how a unit with "sewage leaks and manifestly unsafe
staffing levels" was allowed to continue operating .
4. Statistical Paper Rejection
- A
statistical paper questioning Letby's guilt was refused publication by the
journal Medicine, Science and the Law.
- The
reviewer cited the need to hold "the suffering of the parents...
firmly in mind," which the article criticizes as a potential cover-up,
noting that miscarriages of justice cause more suffering in the long run .
Part 13: Controversial Scientific Evidence, Dr Shoo Lee [link]
Overview
The article focuses on the controversial scientific evidence
used to convict Lucy Letby, specifically the "venous air embolism"
(VAE) theory and the misuse of a 1989 research paper by Dr. Shoo Lee.
Key Findings
1. The "Lee and Tanswell" Paper Misuse
- The
Claim: A key reason for Letby's conviction for murdering seven babies
by VAE was because prosecution expert Dr. Dewi Evans and local
paediatricians cited a 1989 research paper co-authored by Canadian
paediatrician Dr. Shoo Lee. They claimed the paper described skin
changes (discoloration) that matched what was seen on the babies.
- The
Rebuttal: The article reveals that if anyone had contacted Dr. Lee, he
would have pointed out that his paper referred to Pulmonary Vascular
Air Embolism (PVAE), not Venous Air Embolism (VAE), which is
"very different."
- Skin
Changes: Dr. Lee states that the skin changes described in the trial
did not match his research findings. Furthermore, his review suggests you
"don't get localised skin changes even with fatal VAE," meaning
the observed discolorations were likely due to something else (e.g.,
repeated doses of adrenaline).
- Fresh
Evidence: The article argues this new information from Dr. Lee is
"surely fresh evidence" because it renders a large chunk of the
trial inaccurate.
2. Retracted Theories (Air in Stomach)
- The
Thirlwall Inquiry confirmed that the criminal trial found Babies C and
P died from "air via nasogastric tube" and that this was
also a mode of murder for Babies I and O.
- However,
Dr. Evans now argues that air in the stomach is not a method of murder.
The article questions whether this makes the convictions unsafe, noting
that the jury was told it was one of Letby's "favourite ways of
killing".
3. Missed Clinical Failings
- The
author (MD) expresses disbelief that prosecution experts failed to flag
"serious failings in clinical care" to explain the collapses,
which defence experts have now documented.
- Sarah
Davies (clinical scientist) explained that doctors failed to send
blood tests to a specialist laboratory in Guildford to confirm insulin
poisoning, despite this being a standard safeguarding requirement when
exogenous insulin is suspected.
4. Statistical Analysis Missing
- The
report notes that proper statistical analysis was "essential" to
consider all plausible causes but "never happened".
- It
highlights that if the independent reviewer for the Chester deaths had
been Dr. Evans, they would have been ascribed to deliberate harm, whereas
other reviews might have found different causes, illustrating the
subjectivity of the process.
Conclusion
The article concludes that there are "serious and
credible questions" about the evidence presented in court, particularly
the robustness of expert testimony and the interpretation of statistical data.
Parts 14 & 15: Expert Reviews [link]
Overview
The article focuses on the failure to conduct a thorough
expert review before Letby's trial and the subsequent commissioning of
independent experts by her new defence team to challenge the convictions.
Key Findings
1. "Criminally Negligent" Failure
- The
report argues that a thorough expert review of the unit's care should have
happened before Letby was accused of murder.
- It
describes the failure to do this as "criminally negligent,"
noting that earlier reviews (by the Royal College of Paediatrics and Child
Health and Dr. Jane Hawdon) were superficial or brief, yet even
they found "no evidence of deliberate harm" and "plenty of
evidence of substandard care."
- Crucially,
none of the six post-mortem examinations performed by experienced
pathologists at the time raised any concerns of foul play.
2. New Independent Reviews
- Letby's
new barrister, Mark McDonald, commissioned two sets of experts to
review the evidence pro bono for the Criminal Cases Review
Commission (CCRC) application.
- UK
Experts: Two Level 3 neonatologists, Dr. Neil Aiton and Dr.
Svilena Dimitrova, produced detailed reports on four cases. They
explained the deaths and collapses as the result of clinical errors,
finding "no evidence of deliberate harm."
- International
"Dream Team": To counter potential accusations of bias (as
the UK experts had previously signed a letter to the inquiry), McDonald
asked Canadian paediatrician Dr. Shoo Lee to convene a team of 14
international experts with no prior exposure to the case.
- Methodology:
These international experts reviewed all 17 cases, with two experts
assigned to each case (and a third if they disagreed) to ensure a robust,
independent analysis.
3. Public Disclosure Strategy
- The
findings of these reviews were made public at press conferences.
- The
report suggests this tactic was triggered by "police threats of
further charges" (which would silence public debate) and was intended
to put pressure on the CCRC and the Court of Appeal to reconsider the
safety of the convictions.
Parts 16 & 17: International Expert Review, Dr Dewi Evans' Response, & Grounds For Appeal [link]
- Review
Findings: A review by 14 international neonatology experts of all 17
cases found "no evidence of deliberate harm" and instead
found "ample evidence of substandard care" contributing
to the deaths.
- Prosecution
Rebuttal: Lead prosecution expert Dr. Dewi Evans (who retired
from NHS work in 2009) dismissed these findings as "deeply flawed and
erroneous," stating he had not heard criticism from any individual or
organization he respected. Other prosecution experts refused to comment .
- Thirlwall
Inquiry: The inquiry published unedited statements from nurses who
worked with Letby and do not believe she murdered babies. Letby’s former
head of nursing, Karen Rees, publicly stated she believes Letby is
innocent.
- Corporate
Manslaughter: The article questions whether these findings will stop
the police from pursuing corporate manslaughter charges against the
hospital. Lead expert Dr. Shoo Lee noted that the "appalling"
standards of care would have caused the unit to be closed down in Canada.
Grounds for Appeal ("Spoilt for
Choice")
The article outlines several grounds ("new evidence or
argument") that the Criminal Cases Review Commission (CCRC) could use to
refer the case back to the Court of Appeal:
1. Experts U-Turn
- Dr.
Evans signed a statement to Channel 5 in August 2024 admitting that "none
of the babies were killed as a direct result of the injection of air...
into their stomachs," contradicting the method of murder cited by
the prosecution for Babies C, I, and P. The article argues this alone could
make those convictions unsafe .
2. New Evidence
- "Confession"
Notes: Post-trial disclosures revealed Letby's notes were written on
the advice of her counsellor to cope with stress, not as confessions.
- Skin
Changes: Research by Dr. Shoo Lee "demolishes" the
prosecution's claim that specific skin changes are signs of venous air
embolism.
- Shift
Analysis: Statistical analysis showed Letby was not on duty for
10 of the 28 suspicious cases initially identified by Evans, leading to
their removal from the spreadsheet.
3. Factual Errors & Failure to Disclose
- Statistical
Suppression: The prosecution failed to disclose that police had hired
(and then unhired) statistician Professor Jane Hutton to analyze
the deaths.
- Baby
Y (The Third Insulin Baby): A third baby had the same "high
insulin, low C-peptide" results but was diagnosed with congenital
hyperinsulinism (a genetic condition). The prosecution did not
disclose that their experts initially thought this was poisoning but
dropped it when the natural cause emerged. Had the defence known, they
could have argued the test results were not unique to poisoning .
4. The "Best Evidence" (Insulin) Debunked
- Prosecution
barrister Nick Johnson KC called the insulin evidence the "best bit
of evidence."
- Expert
Dr. Svilena Dimitrova argues the evidence is "worthless"
because the immunoassay test used cannot prove exogenous insulin
administration. She states that none of the babies (F, L, or Y) satisfied
the necessary criteria (low glucose, genuinely elevated insulin,
undetectable C-peptide) .
- Dimitrova
describes the trial's medical evidence as "the most extraordinary
interlude of bad science and bad medicine in neonatology that I have ever
witnessed".
5. Police Catch-Up
- Cheshire
Police are considering charging managers and clinicians with gross
negligence manslaughter (GNM) for failing to stop Letby.
- The
report suggests that if Letby shares her expert reports (proving the test
was unreliable and care was poor), GNM charges could still stick, but for
"very different reasons"—namely, failing to provide safe care
rather than failing to stop a murderer .
Part 18: Thirlwall, The Insulin Evidence, & Future Recommendations [link]
Overview
The article focuses on the ongoing Thirlwall Inquiry, the
potential for recommendations to improve NHS safety, and the "hinge"
of the insulin evidence that could be key to an appeal. It also discusses the
broader implications for doctors and safety investigations.
Key Findings
1. Thirlwall's Challenge & Judicial Doubt
- Jonathan
Sumption (former Supreme Court judge) is quoted stating that Lucy
Letby is "probably innocent" and deserves an appeal.
- The
report highlights the challenge facing Lady Justice Thirlwall: she
must make recommendations to make neonatal care safer while her inquiry is
the premise of murder. If Letby is later found innocent (meaning
an innocent nurse was blamed for substandard care), Thirlwall's
recommendations might "miss the point" .
2. The "Insulin Hinge"
- The
report argues the insulin convictions are the "hinge" of the
case. Prosecution experts stated under oath that the only
explanation for the blood results (high insulin, low C-peptide) was
exogenous insulin.
- New
Evidence: Defence experts contend this was a "clear and serious
factual error." The article reveals that the Liverpool lab processing
the samples was experiencing "severe calibration errors" at the
time, "grossly overmeasuring insulin and undermeasuring
C-peptide" .
- Despite
the judge telling jurors there was "no reason to doubt the
reliability of the tests," the article asserts "there certainly
is now" and this alone warrants an appeal .
3. "Doctors in the Dock"
- The
report suggests Thirlwall's inquiry will center on the delay in reporting
suspicions.
- It
states the overriding conclusion will be that safeguarding trumps
everything: "if you truly suspect one of your work colleagues is
murdering babies, you must tell the police immediately."
- Police
will then decide if failure to act sooner constitutes gross negligence
manslaughter alongside potential corporate manslaughter charges
against the hospital .
4. Future Recommendations (MD's View)
- CCTV
& Surveillance: The article discusses potential recommendations
like CCTV in units or covert surveillance, but notes the legal complexity,
cost, and risk of creating a "surveillance culture" driven by
fear .
- Independent
Investigation Body: The author (MD) recommends creating a single,
powerful, independent healthcare investigation organization
(merging existing safety bodies) to monitor data and investigate safety
concerns promptly. This would replace the current system where police
hand-pick "long-retired medical experts" .
- Safe
Staffing: The article concludes that most avoidable harm is due to
understaffing. It calls for mandatory safe staffing levels, arguing this
would save hundreds of lives and reduce litigation costs .
5. Experts Struck by "Lack of Expertise"
- Lawyers
for bereaved parents have been offered full reports from international
experts supporting Letby but have so far declined.
- Seven
of these experts have publicly stated they were "struck by the lack
of expertise" of the prosecution witnesses at the original trial .
Part 19: All Fall Down? Dr Jayaram's Inconsistencies, & Other Contrary Evidence [link]
Overview
The article casts doubt on the safety of Lucy Letby's
convictions, highlighting inconsistencies in key witness testimony (Dr. Ravi
Jayaram), suppressed statistical advice, police tunnel vision, and potential
laboratory errors regarding insulin evidence.
Key Findings
1. Dr. Jayaram's Inconsistencies (Baby K)
- The
Email vs. Testimony: An email from Dr. Jayaram to colleagues on May 4,
2017, explicitly stated: "Staff nurse Letby... called Dr Jayaram
to inform of low saturations."
- Contradiction:
This contradicts his sworn testimony and witness statement where he
claimed Letby had not called for help, a point prosecution counsel
used to argue he caught her "virtually red-handed" .
- Appeal
Court Reaction: The Court of Appeal had already noted "legitimate
criticism" of Jayaram's evidence and inconsistencies with
contemporaneous records. The article suggests this new email further
warrants scrutiny into whether he committed perjury.
- Police
Report Omission: Jayaram's email also noted that Baby K's
deterioration "would fit with explainable events associated with
extreme prematurity," but this observation was not included in the
final report to the police .
2. Suppressed Statistical Advice
- Cheshire
Police hired statistician Professor Jane Hutton to review their
case, but this was blocked by the Crown Prosecution Service (CPS) in July
2021.
- The
Information Commissioner confirmed seeing the CPS advice but refused to
disclose it, citing risks to "future legal proceedings." The
report questions if this suppression is because the advice would help
Letby's case .
3. Police Tunnel Vision & "Deskilling"
- Michele
Worden, a former advanced neonatal practitioner at the hospital, told
police in 2018 that the "deskilling" of the nursing workforce
(replacing senior nurses with less experienced ones) and maternity unit
problems were likely factors in the deaths.
- The
police officer she spoke to was reportedly "not interested" in
this or the Royal College of Paediatrics report, instead asking only for
evidence against Letby.
- The
report argues the investigation was "entirely predicated around a
pre-determined outcome" that refused to consider substandard care as
a cause .
4. The "Lab Error" Theory (Insulin)
- Letby
was convicted of poisoning two babies with insulin "high
insulin, low C-peptide" results.
- The
report reveals a quality control test from the same Liverpool
laboratory (May 23, 2016) where a sample known to have low insulin (108.3)
and high C-peptide (873.5) was reported by the machine as having high
insulin (962) and low C-peptide (130).
- This
"wildly inaccurate" result—an exact reversal of the expected
values—suggests a potential machine error or human error
(mixing up results). This quality control failure was known at the time of
the trial but "not investigated or declared" .
- The
report posits Letby may have been convicted simply because "someone
tired and overworked gets their readings mixed up every eight months or
so" .
5. CCRC Submission
- Letby's
barrister, Mark McDonald, submitted 23 reports from 24 experts to the
Criminal Cases Review Commission (CCRC). These experts found "no
evidence of deliberate harm" in any of the 17 cases and identified
"far more plausible" causes for the deaths .
Part 20: Appeal Court Confusion (Baby K), & Statistical Critique [link]
Overview
The article questions the safety of Lucy Letby's conviction,
particularly focusing on the "confusion" regarding Dr. Ravi Jayaram's
testimony and the lack of statistical rigor in the trial. It features a
critique of three key prosecution claims endorsed by eight independent
professors of statistics.
Key Findings
1. Appeal Court Confusion (Baby K)
- Letby
was convicted of the attempted murder of Baby K based
"entirely on the evidence" of Dr. Ravi Jayaram, who testified
that he caught Letby standing by the cot after she had deliberately
dislodged a breathing tube.
- Jayaram
claimed he went to check on the baby because he was surprised Letby hadn't
called for help.
- However,
an email from Jayaram to colleagues (dated May 4, 2017) revealed he
"stated the facts" that Letby did call him to inform him
of low saturations, after which he came to help .
- The
report notes this email contradicts his sworn testimony. While a
"source close to the case" claimed the email was disclosed and
deemed irrelevant, Letby's barrister Mark McDonald states it was not
put before the appeal court .
2. Statistical Critique The article highlights that no
statistician was used to "spot or stop the statistics being
butchered" during the trial. Eight professors of statistics agreed on the
following rebuttals to prosecution claims :
- Claim
1: "Letby was always there."
- Selection
Bias: The roster chart showed Letby present at 25
"suspicious" events. However, the article argues Dr. Dewi Evans
initially identified 10 more suspicious events, which were removed from
the chart when it turned out Letby wasn't present .
- Ignoring
Other Deaths: Letby was present for only 10 of the 13 deaths on the
unit between June 2015 and June 2016. In total, the "death
spike" involved 16 babies (including 3 who died elsewhere after
transfer), but only 7 were attributed to Letby. The factors contributing
to the other 9 deaths were not explained .
- High-Risk
Cohort: The events were presented as independent, but the roster
included multiple collapses for the same babies (including twins and
triplets) in an understaffed unit. The statisticians argue
"substandard medical care was a highly probable contributory factor,
and far more likely than deliberate harm".
- Claim
2: "The deaths followed Letby to day shifts."
- The
report counters that four deaths occurred on day shifts before
Letby moved to days (when she wasn't on duty) .
- The
two deaths that did occur after her shift change were Babies O and P
(triplets), who were very high-risk. Research shows that even in
uncomplicated triplet pregnancies, there is a high death rate .
- Claim
3: "Deaths stopped when Letby was removed."
- This
coincided precisely with the unit being downgraded from Level 2 to
Level 1, meaning it stopped taking high-risk babies.
- The
report argues that stopping the admission of sick babies is a "more
probable explanation" for the reduction in deaths than the removal
of Letby.
Conclusion
The article suggests the scapegoating of Letby may be a
"convenient smokescreen" for wider system failures, such as
understaffing and the unit accepting babies it wasn't equipped to care for.
Parts 21 & 22: Media Conflicts, Political Intervention, & Dr Jayaram and Dr Evans Referred To GMC [link]
- David
Davis MP's Intervention: The article highlights a Mail on Sunday
opinion piece by MP David Davis, who argued that "bogus statistical
arguments" and "weak expert evidence" have been exposed. He
concluded that Letby is "almost certainly innocent" and that the
unit's poor medical management likely caused the deaths.
- Perjury
Allegation: Davis has written to the Chief Constable of Cheshire
Constabulary asking for an investigation into Dr. Ravi Jayaram for
potential perjury. This relates to Jayaram's testimony that Letby never
called him for help with Baby K, which contradicts an email he sent to
colleagues stating she did call him .
- Cheshire
Police & "The Plodcast": The article reveals that
Cheshire Police paid nearly £24,000 to a media advisory company (Media
Factory Limited) run by Caroline Cheetham, the co-host of the Daily
Mail’s "Trial of Lucy Letby" podcast.
- Conflict
of Interest: Liz Hull, the podcast's other co-host and Mail
correspondent, was listed as a staff member of Media Factory Limited
during the time payments were made.
- Exclusive
Access: The podcast, which the article describes as "hugely
influential" and "one-sided," secured exclusive interviews
with detectives, raising questions about police impartiality and media
influence .
Thirlwall Inquiry, & GMC Competence
- Inquiry
Delay: The Thirlwall Inquiry report has been delayed until "early
2026," presumably to allow the Criminal Cases Review Commission
(CCRC) time to decide on referring Letby's case to the Court of Appeal.
- The
Competence Dilemma: The article argues the General Medical Council
(GMC) faces a critical issue of competence that it cannot ignore:
- Prosecution
Experts: Eight experts claim the only explanation for the
deaths is deliberate harm.
- Defence
Experts: Twenty-four experts (working pro bono) claim there is no
evidence of deliberate harm and that deaths were due to natural causes
and substandard care.
- Conclusion:
"They can't all be right, and they can't all be competent." If
the prosecution experts are wrong, the GMC must address why Chester
paediatricians failed to spot their own substandard care. If the defence
experts are wrong, then dozens of doctors and pathologists failed to spot
"obvious" murder .
- GMC
Referrals & Refusals:
- Dr.
Svilena Dimitrova (a consultant neonatologist) referred Dr. Jayaram
to the GMC for claiming the "only possibility" for Baby K's
tube dislodgement was deliberate harm. She called this "medical
nonsense." The GMC declined to investigate.
- Dimitrova
also referred lead prosecution expert Dr. Dewi Evans to the GMC,
stating he has "no expertise in neonatology" and his comments
were "medical nonsense." The GMC again declined to act but
forwarded the complaint to Evans .
- Evans'
Retaliation: Dr. Evans reportedly complained to the Daily Mail
about Dimitrova, calling for her to be "chucked off" the
Ockenden inquiry into maternity care because of her
"disgraceful" attack on him.
- Expert
Consensus: The article notes that Dimitrova's concerns are now backed
by 23 other international experts, making it "inconceivable"
that the GMC should continue to avoid investigating the competence of the
doctors involved .
Part 23: Appeals All Round, Dr Evans Self-Destructs, & Flaws In Evidence [link]
Overview
The article focuses on growing calls for Lucy Letby's
conviction to be re-examined, driven by high-profile interventions and the
perceived "self-destruction" of the lead prosecution expert, Dr. Dewi
Evans, who has been changing his mind on key theories of murder.
Key Findings
1. Political Intervention
- Jeremy
Hunt (former Health Secretary) argued in the Daily Mail that
the conviction should be "urgently re-examined," stating that
there are "serious and credible questions" about the evidence,
expert testimony, and statistical data.
- Hunt
was persuaded by neonatal experts who found "no medical evidence
of deliberate harm", instead attributing deaths to
"frailer-than-portrayed babies" and "substandard care".
2. Prosecution Expert "Self-Destructs"
- Dr.
Dewi Evans, the lead prosecution expert, reportedly
"snapped" when questioned by an AI software engineer
(TriedByStats). Evans responded with personal attacks, suggesting the
engineer "get out more" and find a "pretty young blonde
female".
- The
report notes that Evans is "professionally isolated," with no
other neonatal expert endorsing his view that deliberate harm was the only
explanation for the deaths.
3. "Bombshell" Flaws in Evidence
- Baby
C (Air in Stomach): Letby was accused of injecting air into Baby C's
stomach an X-ray from June 12, 2015. However, Letby was not on
duty that day.
- The
prosecution switched the date of the "attack" to June 13 (when
she was on duty) despite expert reports not identifying harm on that day.
- Retracted
Theories: Evans signed a statement to Channel 5 in April 2024 stating
that no baby died by injection of air into the stomach,
contradicting the theory used to convict Letby for Babies C, P, and part
of I.
- Other
Inconsistencies:
- Baby
N: Evans initially theorized "inflicted air embolism" but
switched to "attempted murder by inflicted trauma"
(specifically a blow to the back of the throat with a rigid tube).
- Baby
I: Evans proposed air injection down the NG tube, but when it emerged
the baby might not have had an NG tube, he changed the allegation to
"smothering".
- Potassium
& Prongs: He dropped initial theories about potassium chloride
poisoning and dislodged nasal prongs when evidence (like Letby's absence)
didn't fit.
4. Conclusion The article argues that while experts
can change their minds, it is unusual to present findings with
"certainty" while excluding more plausible causes (like substandard
care). It concludes that the Chester consultants who failed to consider their
own shortcomings are the root of the problem, and unlike Evans, they are now
"keeping very quiet".
Part 24: On The Death Of Baby O [link]
Overview
The article focuses on the conviction for the murder of Baby
O, specifically challenging the prosecution's theory of "inflicted
liver trauma." It presents new analysis from defence experts suggesting
the death was actually caused by medical errors, including excessive
ventilation and an accidental liver puncture by a doctor.
Key Findings
1. The "Needle in the Liver" Theory
- Prosecution
Case: Lead expert Dr. Dewi Evans claimed the liver injury
(ruptured subcapsular haematoma) was "inflicted harm" (assault)
by Letby. He made this diagnosis within 10 minutes of seeing photographs,
despite no one observing an assault.
- Defence/New
Expert View: Neonatologists Dr. Neil Aiton and Dr. Svilena
Dimitrova reviewed the records and concluded Baby O died from
avoidable medical errors:
- Excessive
Ventilation: The baby was subjected to "excessive lung
ventilation pressures," which prevented the heart from functioning
properly and pushed the liver downwards.
- Accidental
Puncture: The article argues that consultant Dr. Stephen Brearey
likely accidentally punctured the liver with a needle during
resuscitation efforts.
- Evidence:
The experts point to a "life-threatening fall" in haemoglobin
levels recorded after the needle was inserted, indicating a
massive internal bleed that was neither recognized nor treated (e.g.,
with a blood transfusion).
2. Systemic Failures and "Chaos"
- Staffing
Issues: The article highlights a "medico-legal nightmare"
where no consultant was present to help with intubation, and the registrar
left the ward to attend other duties, causing a delay in care when Baby O
deteriorated.
- Parents'
Account: The parents described the scene as "complete chaos"
and "absolute pandemonium," even noting they saw a nurse
"Googling a procedure" (a lung drain).
3. Legal Implications
- The
report suggests that while the "needle in the liver" possibility
was briefly conceded by prosecution pathologist Dr. Marnerides at trial,
the significance of the subsequent haemoglobin drop was missed.
- It
argues that the Criminal Cases Review Commission (CCRC) might dismiss this
as "old evidence," but the defence experts insist it proves the
death was due to clinical failure, not murder.
Part 25: Failure To Inform The Coroner [link]
Overview
The article focuses on the failure of consultants to report
suspicions of foul play to the coroner at the time of the deaths, and the
subsequent "writing out" of a coroner's officer who found no evidence
of deliberate harm.
Key Findings
1. The Coroner's Disappointment
- Nicholas
Rheinberg, the former senior coroner for Cheshire, told the Thirlwall
Inquiry he was "horribly disappointed" that not a single
consultant or manager passed on suspicions of foul play for any of the
babies Letby was later convicted of murdering.
- Consultants
also failed to report the "highly unusual skin changes" they
later claimed to have seen. Dr. Ravi Jayaram testified that he
didn't report them because he hadn't yet found the research paper linking
such changes to air embolism.
- The
report notes that the author of that research, Professor Shoo Lee,
has since confirmed that venous air embolism does not cause the
skin changes described, meaning the evidence used to convict Letby was
a "misinterpretation".
2. The Whistleblowing Coroner's Officer
- Davies
(a senior coroner's officer) stated that in May 2017, Assistant Chief
Constable Darren Martland asked her to review the post-mortems and records
for the deceased babies.
- She
reported that she could find "no evidence of deliberate harm"
but identified missing pieces of the jigsaw. The article argues this should
have pointed the police toward accidental harm.
- Cheshire
Police later dismissed Davies in a statement as having a mere
"administrative role" and being untrained. The article refutes
this, noting she had specialist investigative training and was promoted to
a senior role requiring expertise.
- Davies
eventually lost her job/resigned following a disciplinary investigation
after she challenged the outcomes of two other murder investigations and
shared details with experts.
3. Unreported Medical Errors
- The
report highlights that medical errors were not reported to the coroner.
For example, defence experts believe triplets Baby O and Baby P
died from "resuscitation errors," specifically ventilation
pressures that were "far too high," restricting cardiac
function.
- It
draws a parallel to a 2015 inquest (Baby Noah Robinson) where doctors had
misplaced a breathing tube into the oesophagus and ignored warnings, a
shortcoming the coroner was already aware of.
Parts 26 & 27: The Shifting Media Narrative, & Recent Documentaries [link]
Overview
The article, titled "Channel Hopping" (and
"Smashie and Nicey" in sub-sections), analyzes the shifting media
narrative around the Lucy Letby case, focusing on recent documentaries that
have begun to question the safety of the convictions.
Key Findings
1. Dismantling the "Four Pillars"
- The
report highlights the ITV documentary Lucy Letby: Beyond Reasonable
Doubt?, stating that it "meticulously dismantled the four pillars
of the prosecution case":
- The
shift chart (statistical evidence).
- The
Post-it notes (alleged confessions).
- The
medical theories of deliberate harm.
- The
insulin blood tests.
- It
criticizes the trial for being "scientifically and statistically
illiterate" and is scathing of the defence for calling no expert
witnesses.
2. Expert and Journalist Reactions
- Prof.
Neena Modi (UK's most senior neonatologist) is quoted stating the unit
was looking after babies it was not equipped to care for
("demonstrably and recognisably on a knife edge"). She argues
that problems went unrecognized until babies deteriorated abruptly,
meaning deaths might have been avoided with earlier intervention.
- Josh
Halliday (Guardian journalist) admitted he was "astonished"
the defence called no experts. Initially believing Letby was guilty, he
now thinks there is a "realistic prospect the convictions are
unsafe" after hearing new expert analysis.
- New
Legal Strategy: Letby's new barrister, Mark McDonald, has engaged
international experts who agreed to review the records only if their
findings were made public, regardless of the result. Letby agreed to this
condition.
3. Specific Case Doubts
- Insulin:
The article describes the prosecution's theory of "secret
bag-spiking" as "fantastical." It cites defence reports
suggesting low blood sugars were caused by clinical failures (e.g.,
leaking IV lines) and notes that a third baby (Baby Y) had similar blood
results due to a natural condition (congenital hyperinsulinism) but was
not included in the charges.
- Baby
O: The article argues Baby O's death was not deliberate harm but
avoidable management failure. It suggests the liver injury (haematoma)
could have been caused by a consultant puncturing the liver with a needle
during resuscitation efforts on a baby with massively hyper-inflated
lungs.
4. Media Criticism
- The
report contrasts the ITV documentary with the BBC's Panorama,
noting a shift in the BBC's titles from The Nurse Who Killed to Who
to Believe?.
- It
criticizes lead prosecution expert Dr. Dewi Evans for his
"absolute certainty" and for changing his mind on murder methods
(e.g., from air in the stomach to air in the vein) while maintaining that
Letby is "guilty as sin".
Part 28: Why Were No Expert Witnesses For The Defence Called? [link]
Overview
The article, titled "Silent Witnesses,"
addresses the central mystery of why the defence in the Lucy Letby trial chose
not to call any expert witnesses. It concludes that this decision stemmed from
a pre-trial meeting where defence experts were "outnumbered" and made
critical concessions that would have been damaging if presented in court.
The Joint Expert Meeting
In August 2022, a "high stakes" meeting was held
with six experts: two for the defence (Dr. Michael Hall, Dr. Mohammed Shakeel
Rahman) and four for the prosecution (Dr. Dewi Evans, Dr. Sandie Bohin, Dr.
Andreas Marnerides, Prof. Peter Hindmarsh). They were required to sign a joint
statement identifying points of agreement and disagreement.
Key Points of Agreement (The Defence's Problem)
- Insulin
Evidence: The "turning point" of the meeting was the
agreement regarding Babies F and L. All experts, including the defence's
Dr. Hall and Dr. Rahman, agreed that the cause of hypoglycaemia was
"exogenous insulin administration".
- Tactical
Withdrawal: Because the defence experts had formally agreed with the
prosecution on the insulin charges, calling them to the stand would have
forced them to admit this to the jury. The article argues this gave the
prosecution a "big win" and left the defence without a witness
to challenge the reliability of the insulin tests.
Key Points of Disagreement
Despite conceding on insulin, the defence experts raised
significant doubts about other causes of death:
- Air
Embolism & Skin Changes: The prosecution experts cited skin
discolouration as evidence of air embolism. Defence experts Hall and
Rahman repeatedly stated there was "no evidence to support the
claim". The article notes that post-trial research has since debunked
the skin change theory.
- Stomach
Air: Prosecution experts (Evans, Bohin, Marnerides) argued that
"massive gastric dilatation" (air in the stomach) was a method
of killing. Defence experts disagreed, attributing it to infection or
"CPAP belly" (a common side effect of breathing support).
- Note:
The article highlights that Dr. Evans has since admitted that air in the
stomach is not a method of murder, leaving his colleagues Bohin
and Marnerides as the sole supporters of a theory "entirely without
an evidence base".
- Baby
K (Extubation): Dr. Hall argued that the dislodgement of Baby K's
breathing tube was "likely to have been spontaneous," noting it
happened two more times with different staff shortly after.
Conclusion
The defence did not call their experts because they had
signed a legally binding statement admitting that "air embolus cannot be
excluded" and that insulin was administered. The article suggests the
defence strategy was to avoid handing the prosecution a "field day"
by having their own witnesses confirm key parts of the prosecution's case.
Part 29: The C4 Documentary, The Role Of The Consultants, Systemic Failures, & Expert Witness Imbalance [link]
Overview
The article criticizes the media coverage and the origins of
the police investigation, while highlighting systemic failures (staffing,
intubation) and the imbalance in expert witness resources between prosecution
and defence.
Key Findings
1. Reaction to Channel 4 Documentary
- The
report describes the two-part documentary Lucy Letby – Murder or
Mistake? as "pretty much the Dewi Evans show" (referring to
the lead prosecution expert).
- Evans
is quoted calling Letby "evil" and "guilty as sin,"
while dismissing Private Eye and other critics as "God's most
entitled" and part of the "great metropolitan elite."
- He
characterized international experts challenging his findings as
"hired guns".
2. Origins of the Investigation ("Framing the
Problem")
- The
report examines how consultants persuaded Cheshire Police to investigate.
Dr. Stephen Brearey circulated a draft document in May 2017 arguing that
the spike in deaths was "unexpected and unexplained" and linked
to Letby's presence.
- However,
fellow consultant Dr. John Gibbs expressed uncertainty at the time,
noting that to an outsider or non-medic, many deaths seemed to have
"enough reasons" (such as serious heart disorders or infection)
to be explained naturally, questioning if a criminal investigation was
warranted.
- Gibbs
also questioned Brearey's claim that the unit's downgrade was not a
significant reason for the cessation of deaths.
3. Medical and Systemic Failures
- Intubation
Difficulties: Dr. Tariq Ali, a paediatric intensive care consultant,
identified a pattern of "multiple failed and repeated
intubations" on the unit. He argued this caused oxygen deprivation
(evidenced by desaturation readings and post-mortem signs) which could
explain some collapses.
- Staffing
Crisis: The article highlights that staff were "chronically
overworked" and often in tears. One account describes the unit as
being "stretched thinner and thinner" to a "breaking
point," with the acceptance of high-risk triplets (babies O and P)
exacerbating the danger.
4. The "Insulin" Trap and Expert Disparity
- The
report suggests the case likely only went to trial because of insulin
results found during a retrospective notes trawl.
- It
notes that the defence "conceded" this point at a pre-trial
meeting, leaving them without experts to challenge the reliability of the
tests or offer alternative explanations (like insulin receptor
antibodies).
- Mary
Prior KC (Chair of the Criminal Bar Association) is quoted explaining
the difficulty of finding defence experts: legal aid fees are often too
low to attract qualified professionals, whereas the prosecution has a
larger budget. This creates a risk that expert evidence becomes
"consciously or subconsciously" biased toward the prosecution.
Part 30: Dr Dewi Evans And Baby C [link]
1. Major Retraction by Chief Expert
- Dr. Dewi
Evans, the chief prosecution expert, issued a press statement on September
30 calling on the police and Crown Prosecution Service (CPS) to "set
the record straight" regarding the murder of Baby C.
- Evans
now states that no babies in the case were killed by air injected
into the stomach, a method he originally proposed and which was central to
the convictions for Babies C, I, and P.
2. The Prosecution Error
- Letby
was convicted of murdering Baby C by injecting air down the nasogastric
tube, a theory heavily supported by an X-ray showing massive gastric
dilation on June 12, 2015.
- However,
it emerged that Letby was not on duty on June 12 and did not start
her shift until June 13.
- Despite
this, prosecution barrister Nicholas Johnson KC told the jury it was
"plain as the nose on your face" that Letby injected the air,
implying she must have done it on June 13, without explaining the air
already present on the June 12 X-ray.
3. Blame Shifting
- Evans
claims he noticed the date error during the trial and updated his theory
to suggest death was actually caused by air injected into a vein on
June 13.
- He
argues that the police, CPS, and prosecution team "confused" the
dates and wrongly attributed the death to stomach air, implying the jury
was misdirected by the legal team rather than by his original report.
4. Implications for Appeal
- The
report argues that by publicly accusing the prosecution, judge, and jury
of getting the cause of death wrong for Baby C, Evans may have
inadvertently provided grounds for Letby's appeal.
- The
author (MD) contends that Evans' admission that stomach air did not kill
any babies makes the convictions for Babies C, I, and P "unsafe".
5. Personal Attacks
- Evans
criticized Dr. Phil Hammond (MD) for questioning his diagnosis, citing
MD's "clinical limitations" as a "comedy doctor".
- MD
responds by noting that numerous independent neonatal experts have
examined the same records and found no evidence of murder, suggesting
Evans is isolated in his certainty.
Part 31: Dr Dewi Evans Undermines The Other Prosecution Expert Witnesses [link]
This (Part 31) focuses on the
"other experts" in the Lucy Letby trial and how the lead expert, Dr.
Dewi Evans, has purportedly undermined their credibility and the prosecution's
case.
Key Findings
The central theme is that Dr. Evans has retracted a key
theory of murder ("air in the stomach") that he originally convinced
other experts to support, which was then used to convict Letby of three
murders.
1. The "Air in the Stomach" Theory:
- Original
Claim: Dr. Evans originally theorized that Letby murdered babies by
injecting excess air into their stomachs via nasogastric tubes (NGT). He
claimed this caused "splinting" of the diaphragm, leading to
respiratory failure and death.
- Convictions:
This theory was the basis for Letby's conviction for the murders of Baby
C, Baby I, and Baby P.
- Retraction:
Post-trial, Dr. Evans issued a statement (responding to a Channel 5
documentary) admitting that no babies actually died by this method,
claiming they were merely "destabilized." The article notes Evans
provides "no credible reference" for this method of death, and
MD (Dr. Phil Hammond) states it is "unheard of."
2. Impact on Other Experts:
- The
report argues Evans has "sold down the river" his fellow
experts, Dr. Sandie Bohin (Paediatrician) and Dr. Andreas
Marnerides (Pathologist).
- Consensus
Building: At a pre-trial meeting in August 2022, Evans persuaded Bohin
and Marnerides to sign statements agreeing that the collapses/deaths of
Babies C, I, and P were caused by "exogenous administration of air
via the NGT."
- Crucial
Testimony:
- Dr.
Marnerides: Initially thought Baby C died of natural causes but
changed his mind to support Evans' theory. His testimony was
"crucial" for the convictions, stating explicitly that death
was secondary to excessive air in the gut.
- Dr.
Bohin: Testified that massive gastric dilatation in Baby C was
"most likely due to deliberate exogenous administration of
air," even though it later emerged Letby had not met the baby when
the X-ray was taken.
3. Legal Implications:
- Judge
and Jury Misled: The article asserts that Judge Goss and prosecution
barrister Nicholas Johnson KC relied heavily on this expert consensus.
Johnson told the jury it was "plain as the nose on your face"
that Letby used this method.
- Appeal
Grounds: The article argues that Evans' withdrawal of this murder
method "demands action from the Court of Appeal" because the
convictions were "misinformed guesswork" that has now
been disavowed by its creator.
4. Evans' Reaction:
- When
asked about his retraction, Evans reportedly gave "no comment"
regarding his colleagues but described Letby to Channel 4 as
"evil," "guilty as sin," and a "sociopath"
(despite lacking psychiatric qualifications).
- The
report suggests Evans is "angry" that the evidence for Baby C
(an X-ray) was taken when Letby wasn't present, undermining his original
theory.
In summary, the article posits that the prosecution's
consensus on three murder charges has "shattered" because the lead
expert has disowned the very method of killing he convinced his colleagues and
the jury to accept.
Part 32: Trial Flaws And Expert Doubts, The Police Investigation, Medical Expert Witnesses [link]
Overview
The article, titled "The Lessons of the Lucy Letby
Case: Part 32", argues that the prosecution's case in the Lucy Letby
trial was "seriously wrong" and driven by "confirmation
bias." It highlights significant disagreements among prosecution experts,
new doubts about the causes of death, and criticism from senior police figures
regarding the investigation's integrity.
Key Findings
1. Trial Flaws and Expert Doubts
- Alternative
Explanations: The article challenges the prosecution's central claim
that "deliberate harm" was the only plausible explanation for
the collapses and deaths. It asserts there are "far more plausible
and evidence-based explanations."
- Retracted
Theories: Dr. Dewi Evans, a key prosecution expert, reportedly now
admits that "death by air down the nasogastric tube" (a method
attributed to Letby for three murders) did not actually kill the babies.
- Skin
Changes Debunked: The theory that specific skin changes indicated
venous air embolism has purportedly been "dismantled by post-trial
research."
- Baby
O Disagreement: Letby was convicted of murdering Baby O via air
embolism and liver trauma. However, prosecution experts disagreed on this:
- Dr.
Sandie Bohin (Paediatrician) was "unsure" about the liver
trauma, suggesting it could be iatrogenic (medically induced)
damage from attempts to decompress the abdomen during resuscitation.
- Dr.
Owen Arthurs (Radiologist) reported that gas seen in post-mortem
X-rays was consistent with "trauma and resuscitation," not
intravenous air administration.
2. Police Investigation Failures
- Confirmation
Bias: Dr. Steve Watts, a former assistant chief constable who wrote
the national policy for investigating deaths in healthcare, described the
investigation as "unconsciously skewed by confirmation bias" and
called the outcome an "egregious miscarriage of justice."
- "Overawed"
Investigators: Watts believes the police were "overawed" by
the two consultant doctors, Stephen Brearey and Ravi Jayaram, who pushed
the accusations.
- Ignored
Protocols: The National Injuries Database warned that a panel of
independent experts (including forensic pathologists and toxicologists)
should review the cases. Instead, the police handed the notes to Dr.
Evans, a retired paediatrician with no recent high-level neonatal
experience, who claimed to spot "deliberate harm" within 10
minutes.
- Lack
of Rigor: The investigation lacked statistical input to consider
natural causes or other factors.
3. Allegations of Perjury
- Dr.
Ravi Jayaram: The article mentions that MP Sir David Davis has asked
Cheshire Police to investigate Dr. Jayaram for perjury. This follows the
emergence of an email that contradicts his sworn testimony regarding
whether Letby called him for help during a baby's collapse.
4. Systemic Issues
- Expert
Shopping: The article criticizes the adversarial legal system for
encouraging "expert shopping," where sides seek out witnesses
willing to support a specific narrative rather than providing impartial
evidence.
- Lack
of Accountability: It notes that experts are often not held
accountable if they fail to provide impartial evidence.